Brazil and China have been solid for years. Now Brazilians are picking their next president. Will the winner change the game? Guess who's rooting for a change in course. Let's talk business space. China's huge population is hungry for Brazilian beef and its livestock for Brazilian soybeans. This plus its demand for Brazil's iron ore, oil and critical minerals make China its number one customer. China, meanwhile, is heavily investing in Brazil and it's also a top supplier of the fertilizers Brazil needs to grow what China wants. Trump's tariff pressure has only strengthened ties. Another cornerstone of the relationship is BRICS, not these. I'm talking about that loose club of powers with different agendas but a common goal, a bigger say in a Western-dominated world. Brazil and China are both founding members. BRICS has given them a platform to team up on the global stage. Brazil's incumbent president Lula da Silva wants a bigger role for his country in a multipolar world. He strengthened ties with China but also kept pragmatic relations with the US and other powers. That approach is now facing a challenge in the second round of the presidential election. On October 25th, Lula is facing Flavio Bolsonaro. Yes, another Bolsonaro, son of the former president who was sentenced to 27 years for plotting a coup. Flavio edged out Lula in round one and is seen as much more pro-American. He already said he might rethink Brazil's role in BRICS and that it mainly serves to provoke the US. Not hard to imagine why Donald Trump has made it very clear who he wants to win. The US is pushing for more influence in Latin America. The formation of the Shield of the Americas is part of that. Anyone getting Marvel vibes? Trump says this coalition is mainly about fighting drug cartels. Lula called it a hegemonic move. So if Bolsonaro wins, Latin America's biggest player by size, population and economic power will likely join the coalition. Would that mean a major shift in Brazil's China policy? Bolsonaro Jr. has called for economically pragmatic relations with the country. Because here's the catch. Many of his voters come from rural regions that made good money selling to China. Political ties may cool, but economic ties likely won't. That's what former Brazilian diplomat Rubens Recupero expects. Critics say it's an unequal relationship. China has the upper hand economically, so Brazil can't simply step out of the game. The biggest wild card? How hard Trump will push the future president to change course.